Sebastian Zearing

how to be progressive without being a stupid liberal

Tag Archives: climate policy

The Canary in the Arctic

This prediction was made on 28 July 2015.

It is the death of the proverbial canary in the coalmine that is the harbinger of disaster. As for CAGW, it is not the death of the Arctic ice, but rather its resurrection, which will be a harbinger of disaster for mainstream climate policy. Clearly since 2012 but perhaps even since 2010, Arctic sea ice volume anomaly has been on an upswing year-over-year.

Specific Prediction

1) I predict that the upswing will continue, reversing the trend of the last few decades. 2) I predict that within 10 years this upswing will become the primary instigator of defection from the CAGW camp, trouncing flat temperatures and other climate data series. Note that if Arctic ice volume declines for several years in a row within this 10 year time frame, then I will hold 1 to be falsified. However, if such a decline is insufficiently pronounced, then 2 may still come to pass.