Sebastian Zearing

how to be progressive without being a stupid liberal

Tag Archives: AGW

The Canary in the Arctic

This prediction was made on 28 July 2015.

It is the death of the proverbial canary in the coalmine that is the harbinger of disaster. As for CAGW, it is not the death of the Arctic ice, but rather its resurrection, which will be a harbinger of disaster for mainstream climate policy. Clearly since 2012 but perhaps even since 2010, Arctic sea ice volume anomaly has been on an upswing year-over-year.

Specific Prediction

1) I predict that the upswing will continue, reversing the trend of the last few decades. 2) I predict that within 10 years this upswing will become the primary instigator of defection from the CAGW camp, trouncing flat temperatures and other climate data series. Note that if Arctic ice volume declines for several years in a row within this 10 year time frame, then I will hold 1 to be falsified. However, if such a decline is insufficiently pronounced, then 2 may still come to pass.

Climate Change Revisited

I wrote a post over a year ago about climate change where I gave a brief ontology of the climate change debate and my place in it. This post explains my position as a climate change slight-luke-warmer. I think the human release of carbon dioxide is leading to warming in the atmosphere. Still, I think the negative feedbacks must necessarily be stronger than the positive feedbacks, and so whatever the equilibrium temperature response is to a doubling of CO2 without feedback (estimates of 1-2ºC), the real-world response will be smaller.

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Climate Change

It is claimed that the economic activities of humans since the Industrial Revolution have altered the composition of the atmosphere in ways that will affect climate by increasing the amount of energy contained in the atmosphere. One can take a variety of positions with respect to this claim:

Since 1800:
1) The globe (atmosphere/biosphere/hydrosphere/etc.) has cooled.
2) The globe has not changed.
3) The globe has warmed due mainly to natural causes, and this is not dangerous.
4) The globe has warmed due mainly to human activity, and this is not dangerous.
5) The globe has warmed due mainly to human activity, and this is dangerous.
6) The globe has warmed due mainly to human activity, and this will be catastrophic.

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