Sebastian Zearing

how to be progressive without being a stupid liberal

Category Archives: Predictions

The Canary in the Arctic

This prediction was made on 28 July 2015.

It is the death of the proverbial canary in the coalmine that is the harbinger of disaster. As for CAGW, it is not the death of the Arctic ice, but rather its resurrection, which will be a harbinger of disaster for mainstream climate policy. Clearly since 2012 but perhaps even since 2010, Arctic sea ice volume anomaly has been on an upswing year-over-year.

Specific Prediction

1) I predict that the upswing will continue, reversing the trend of the last few decades. 2) I predict that within 10 years this upswing will become the primary instigator of defection from the CAGW camp, trouncing flat temperatures and other climate data series. Note that if Arctic ice volume declines for several years in a row within this 10 year time frame, then I will hold 1 to be falsified. However, if such a decline is insufficiently pronounced, then 2 may still come to pass.

Human biodiversity

This prediction was made on 28 July 2015.

Human biodiversity (HBD) is the notion that the biological entity known as Homo sapiens sapiens is subject to subpopulation differences in virtually all conceivable characteristics because of irregular distributions of genetic alleles. This is also identified by some with “racism,” and yet by others with “race realism.” I reject both labels as “race” isn’t a well-defined biological concept, and also essentialism is false. The main purpose of HBD is to provide a view specifically opposed to blank-slatism: though many human characteristics (such as skin color, tooth shape, susceptibility to sickle-cell anemia, adult ability to digest milk, etc.) are known to vary across subpopulations (which does happen to be a well-defined, non-essentialist biological concept), many find it difficult to extend this simple concept into the neurological, psychological, cognitive, and behavioral realms.

Read more of this post

Vasalgel and the Sexual Marketplace

This prediction was made on 17 April 2015.

Vasalgel is a male birth control technology that is currently undergoing human trials for approval by the FDA, probably by 2017 or 2018. It is a polymer that is delivered via a one-shot injection into the vas deferens, where it apparently functions by electrochemically perforating (and therefore killing) any sperm cells that pass by it. The one injection lasts upwards of several years, perhaps up to ten or more. It is easily reversible with an injection of a solvent that flushes out the polymer. It has been 100% successful in prior trials with baboons. It will be very cheap ($100 ballpark).

Read more of this post

Self-driving Cars

See more posts in the Predictions series. 17 December 2013

I have chosen self-driving cars as the first topic in my prediction series for several reasons. First, it is one prediction which I am extremely confident making, it is further one that has not been on anyone’s radar until very recently, and finally it portends large changes to American society and culture. Similar events will take place around the world, and probably even sooner in Scandinavia, Japan, and the Blue Banana.

What are self-driving cars?

Self-driving cars use GPS and computer vision technologies that parse video streams of roads to control the vehicle so that it travels safely and efficiently to its destination without the attention of a human. They can be self-contained, or they can communicate with control centers or even other self-driving cars to optimizing their performance.

Read more of this post