This prediction was made on 17 April 2015.
Vasalgel is a male birth control technology that is currently undergoing human trials for approval by the FDA, probably by 2017 or 2018. It is a polymer that is delivered via a one-shot injection into the vas deferens, where it apparently functions by electrochemically perforating (and therefore killing) any sperm cells that pass by it. The one injection lasts upwards of several years, perhaps up to ten or more. It is easily reversible with an injection of a solvent that flushes out the polymer. It has been 100% successful in prior trials with baboons. It will be very cheap ($100 ballpark).
How does this affect the sexual marketplace and society?
[Most?] Women want babies. Some women determine that they want to marry a man who will provide her with pregnancies. Some women determine that they would rather go ahead and have a baby with a man who has not [yet?] married or committed himself to her. Either way, it is currently impossible for a baby to be born without the permission of a woman, and that is a good thing. However, it is currently not the case that it is impossible for a baby to be born without the permission of a man. Why is this the case? There are two reasons, stemming from causes of and interferences with pregnancy. First, the best a man can do to prevent pregnancy upon sex is to use condoms or to trust his female partner to use birth control. Second, a man has no jurisdiction over abortion, and so if a pregnancy occurs, no permission is required to bring the child to term.
How does Vasalgel change this? Imagine a society where getting Vasalgel as a rite-of-passage during puberty is pervasive, resulting in 99%+ of males being infertile until they decide to be fertile. In this society, no casual sex results in pregnancies, and no sex in a non-committed relationship results in pregnancies either. Babies are only born when a man makes the personal, explicit, and effortful decision to become a father.
No let’s go back to women wanting babies. In the world we currently live in, there are the two strategies I mentioned above for a woman to have a baby: babies born with or without committed fathers. In the future world of pervasive Vasalgel, the latter strategy vanishes. The widespread suspended fertility of the male gender completely and utterly demolishes the AF/BB strategy. No baby is born without the permission of a man, and that is also a good thing! [Insert exceptions for reproductive technologies.]
The sexual market value of men that want offspring will jump instantly. If you are one of these men, you will now be more in demand. Conversely, the sexual market value of men that don’t want offspring will decrease (but not among women that aren’t looking to make babies soon!). Long-term effects of this will lead to humanity evolving towards universal desire of offspring.
Back to the short- and medium-term, teen pregnancy and single motherhood will plummet along with absentee fatherhood. Women will once again have to face the realization that securing a man is important (if they want children; if they don’t, this isn’t applicable).
Politically, the fight over Vasalgel will lay bare the fractures among both leftists and rightists. There are two camps of feminists, those who believe in equality, and those who honestly but probably covertly don’t care about equality just as long as women get ahead. There are two camps of conservatives, those who truly believe in strong societies, and those who are stuck on issues like preventing teenagers from having sex. Vasalgel will make the world see the fractures, and it will unite equality feminists with strong-society conservatives, relegating both the evil feminists and the irrelevant prudes to ignominy and widespread dismissal (or maybe that’s just more wishful thinking).
I predict that sometime in the few years after the approval by the FDA, around 2020, there will be a political uproar over whether to allow pubertal males easy access to this technology that will be about as loud as the political uproar over female birth control and Obamacare.
What can you do?
Become an activist working on securing universal birth control for all men. Donate to the Parsemus foundation. Enroll in a clinical trial. Make noise; show the world there is willpower behind this. Eviscerate any feminist that dare desire to limit men’s choice; lay her (or his) hypocrisy bare. Vote or work to make reproductive technologies illegal for single adults.
Technology ushered in the era of female liberation, and technology will do the same for men. This is the best chance we have to fight the cause; don’t waste it!